Line-Stepper Sports

(This is one of many pieces you’ll see from me over on The Sportfolio, a new venture in the sports blog game I’m excited to be a part of. The brand just doubled. Don’t miss it.)

Chiefs +1000

In the entire history of Pat Mahomes’ Chiefs, they’ve never been this slept on. And they’ll probably never be this slept on again, which is what makes this right here a golden opportunity.

I get it. They lost the AFC Championship to a team they should have beat. They lost Tyreek. Andy Reid creeps yet another year closer towards cardiac arrest.

Now everywhere I look there’s Bills belief, Chargers hype, even Broncos (let’s) riders, and it’s got me wondering…

Did y’all forget!? Mahomes and Reid are the Curry and Kerr of the NFL; It doesn’t terribly matter what the specific talent is around them, as long as there is talent, they’re real hard to outscore.

Last I checked, Travis Kelce still exists, and the new double surname duo, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, have each been plenty productive anytime they play with a quality QB.

I can easily imagine a scenario where the Chiefs go 2014 San Antonio Spurs mode on the whole league and walk away with the Lombardi. The disrespectful silence around this team is deafening at 10 to 1.

Outside of Kansas City, the Super Bowl futures with real value all reside in the NFC.

Nobody is that confident in the Bucs (+750) getting back in championship shape or the Rams (+1100) to repeat after they barely completed their cakewalk last year. A little further down the list though… I smell value.

49ers +1600

The 49ers have been title contenders since the season before Covid hit. There are only 2 things that have held them back from a championship this whole time:

1. Team injuries (see: 2020)

2. Quarterback quality

Right now, the 49ers are the healthiest they’ve been this decade and 15 full months into sculping their chosen QB prospect to be Kyle Shanahan’s ideal instrument.

Key point to remember: Trey Lance doesn’t have to be much better than Jimmy G ever was to win it all with San Fran’s (still) stacked roster.

They were 12 points shy of a Super Bowl ring with a quarterback that everyone agrees maxes out at mediocre. Now they have a QB they actually want and like, and even gave him the mini-Aaron Rodgers treatment to make extra sure he’s prepared to put up Ws this year.

In this wide-open NFC, the 49ers at +1600 is a hard bet to beat.

But there’s still one that does.

Eagles +2000

As a lifelong suffering-then-jubilant-then-back-to-suffering Eagles fan myself, it’s a lil hard for me to write about these odds objectively. So, I’m not going to.

Philly’s roster is better than San Fran’s and even outclasses Kansas City via advanced metrics. They’re layered with trench talent and playmakers on both sides of the ball, and their division is a punchline, so why are their odds wayyyyyyy up in the rafters at 20 to 1?

Because nobody believes in Jalen Hurts. Again.

I’m fucking tired of nobody believing in Jalen Hurts. I won’t even bring up his uniquely applaudable NCAA odyssey. Do you have any idea who Hurts has had to throw to for the season and change he’s been starting QB in Philadelphia?

Greg Ward has caught more touchdown passes from Jalen Hurts than any other NFL receiver. Greg Ward is also the most accurate passer of all time in the American Athletic Conference.

Ward didn’t play wide receiver at all until the Eagles’ prolonged skill position idiocy made it necessary. Only in Philly could a new quarterback’s favorite TD target be a different and worse quarterback.

Fortunately, now we’re an entire offseason removed from that reality. And thanks to GM Howie Roseman and whichever amphetamine he must have been pounding all spring, this team has even more talent at receiver now than the Super Bowl 52 squad did.

The last time Hurts led an offense with above average teammates, he was banging down the door of a Heisman with both fists. Fantasy gurus have been on this for months; between his arm and his legs, Hurts is poised to post standout numbers week after week.

Look, I’ve been plenty dubious of his talent myself, but historically speaking, there isn’t a lot of money to be made betting against Jalen Hurts. He’s just one of those guys.

Betting on Jalen Hurts though? Especially this year, with this team? At +2000??? Go birds.